Weathernews Inc. has announced their forecast for the upcoming cherry blossom season. This year, the Yoshino cherry trees are expected to blossom earlier or slightly earlier than usual across a wide area of western and eastern Japan (based on the averages for the past 5 years from 2015 to 2019), and in some places blossoms are expected to appear at the earliest dates on record. However, blossoming is forecast to begin slightly later than usual in the southern part of Kyushu, where the break of dormancy has been delayed due to a warm winter. Blossoming will begin on March 16th in Tokyo and Fukuoka, followed by Yokohama, Matsuyama, and Kochi on the 17th. If cherry trees blossom in Tokyo on March 16, it will match the earliest blossoming date since record keeping began. By the end of March, cherry trees will be blossoming in most areas of western and eastern Japan, and will have begun to blossom in southern Tohoku. The cherry blossom front will reach Hokkaido in late April, with Kushiro expected to be the last place to see blossoms, early in May. 
 Currently, buds are growing at the same rate as, or slightly faster than, last year, when blossoms appeared in line with yearly averages. With temperatures in March and April expected to be higher than normal, and the same as or higher than last year, buds are growing quickly and blossoms are expected to appear up to a week earlier than last year in some places.
 This cherry blossom forecast is calculated based on 1,960 reports from the Nationwide Bud Survey conducted by Weathernews, together with weather forecasts.

* You can see cherry blossom forecasts for 800 famous locales in Japan at the Weathernews "Sakura Ch." website (in Japanese). 
  https://weathernews.jp/s/sakura/

2020 Cherry Blossom Forecast

Blossoming will start in Fukuoka and Tokyo on March 16th!
Tokyo is forecast to see blossoms on the earliest date in observation history

 In 2020, Yoshino cherry trees are expected to blossom earlier or slightly earlier than usual throughout the country, with some places seeing the earliest blossoms on record. In Tokyo, blossoming is expected to begin on March 16th, matching the earliest blossoming dates on record (2002, 2013). Compared to 2019, blossoms will appear earlier in many places, and as much as a week earlier in some locations.
 There were concerns that a delay in the break of dormancy due to the warm winter would delay blossoming in western and eastern Japan, but it appears that frequent cold spells have resulted in the break of dormancy across a wide area, with the exception of southern Kyushu. With forecasts calling for higher than normal temperatures in March and April, the growth of cherry blossom buds will progress smoothly. In particular, with many clear days forecast during the first half of March, the warmth of the sun will drive bud growth. Blossoming will begin on March 16th in Tokyo and Fukuoka, followed by Yokohama, Matsuyama, and Kochi on the 17th. Blossoming will begin by the end of March throughout most areas of western and eastern Japan, including Hokuriku, and even in Nagano blossoms are expected to appear in early April.
 In northern Japan, the weather is expected to be changeable through the first half of March, with some days experiencing the effects of low atmospheric pressure and cold air, but the number of sunny days will increase during the latter half of the month. With forecasts calling for higher than normal temperatures in March and April, bud growth will progress smoothly. The earliest blossoms will appear on March 30th in Sendai and Fukushima, and the cherry blossom front will reach Hokkaido in late April. Blossoms are expected in Hakodate on April 22 and in Sapporo on April 23rd.

* About blossoming dates: Blossoming dates are described as "in line with the average year" when they fall within 2 days of the annual average (average of the past 5 years), "slightly early" or "slightly late" when they are 3 to 4 days before or after the average, "early" or "late" when they occur 5 days or more before or after the yearly average.

Cherry blossom growth throughout Japan according to the Nationwide Bud Survey

 Results of the Nationwide Bud Survey* of 1,960 cherry trees (incl. 1,470 Yoshino cherry trees) around Japan indicate that, with the exception of southern Kyushu, bud growth is currently the same or slightly early in most places compared with the same time last year, with a tendency to be slightly ahead of western Japan.
 This winter's temperatures in southern Kyushu have been higher than normal, so there could be a delay in the buds breaking dormancy, but in other areas it appears that dormancy has been broken due to intermittent cold spells. Buds are growing slowly due to the many warm days occurring since the second half of February. According to the Nationwide Bud Survey, although most buds were still small and hard, some had already begun to develop yellow tips, indicating that they had begun to grow.
 In northern Japan, on the other hand, almost all of the buds are still small and hard, so it looks as though it will take a little longer to develop a detailed understanding of the situation. Based on past surveys, we expect clear changes to appear beginning in mid-March.

* About the Nationwide Bud Survey
 In order to investigate the state of cherry blossom development throughout the country, Weathernews conducted the Nationwide Bud Survey from February 20th to the 22nd, with the help of users of the company's Weathernews smartphone app. In this survey, participants submitted reports with their assessment of bud growth based on seven stages ("still small and hard", "tips have turned yellow", "tips have turned green", "more than half green", "tips have turned pink", "flower petals visible", and "flower axis extended") along with photos.

Forecast for the Kanto and Kinki regions

The early arrival of Tokyo blossoms will match previous records!
Cherry blossom viewing will be OK from late March.

 Although it has been a warm winter, there have been frequent cold spells, which we believe has resulted in a clear break of dormancy. The Kanto region has experienced days of higher temperatures, such as the time of the first south winds of spring, and buds are developing at about the same pace as last year or slightly faster. According to the Nationwide Bud Survey, most buds are still small and hard, but some have developed yellow tips.
 March temperatures will be higher than normal, with many sunny days in the first half of the month, causing rapid bud growth. Although we expect many days of unsettled weather in the latter half of March just before blossoming begins, buds will have grown sufficiently toward blossoming during the warmer first half of the month to cause blossoms to appear earlier or slightly earlier than both the average and last year.

The early arrival of Osaka blossoms will match the previous record!
Cherry trees will approach full bloom from the end of March in various places.

 There were concerns that, in the Kinki region, the record-breaking warm winter weather would cause a delay in the break of dormancy, but it appears that the cherry trees have broken dormancy thanks to frequent cold spells. There were warm days in February, and buds have already begun to grow. According to the Nationwide Bud Survey, most buds are still small and hard, but some have developed yellow tips.
 Higher than average temperatures are forecast for March and April. With many warm sunny days in the first half of March, bud growth will progress rapidly. In the latter half of the month, just before blossoming begins, there will be an increase in days with unsettled weather, but due to warm weather during the first half of the month, blossoms are expected to appear earlier or slightly earlier compared to both the average year and last year.
 The first blossoms will appear in Wakayama, where they are expected on March 19th, followed by Osaka and Kyoto on the 20th. If cherry blossoms appear in Osaka on March 20, it will match the earliest blossoming date since record keeping began. We expect blossoming to progress smoothly, with many locations welcoming their first cherry blossoms in late March. Various areas are forecast to reach full bloom from the end of March, with Arashiyama (Kyoto) expected to reach full bloom on March 30th.

Cherry blossom forecast for major cities throughout the country
(Unmarked are Yoshino cherry trees, * Marked are Ezoya cherry trees)

Cherry Blossom Forecasts for Well Known Places

Reference: Cherry Blossom Forecast Definitions

- Cherry Blossom Forecasts for Major Cities
Blossoming date: The first day when more than 5 or 6 flowers on the sample tree has blossomed
Full bloom date: The first day when 80% or more of the buds on the sample tree has opened

- Cherry blossom forecasts for 800 well known places
At Weathernews, we define the first day when at least one flower is in bloom on the tree as the "blossoming date". Also, the blossoming date for parks, etc. with multiple cherry trees on the premises is defined as the "peak day of blossoming (1 blossom) for that site."

- Full bloom start date
We define the day when 80% or more of the flowers are in bloom as the start of "full bloom".

- Average year's blossoming date
In order to reflect the trend in recent years for cherry trees to begin blossoming earlier, the average year's blossoming dates are calculated based on the averages during the past 5 years, from 2015 to 2019. In addition, the average year's blossoming dates are described as "in line with the average year" when they fall within 2 days of the average, "slightly early" or "slightly late" when they are 3 to 4 days before or after the average date, and "early" or "late" when blossoming occurs 5 days or more off the yearly average.

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